Some ancestral changes in Iron Age Estonia

QpAdm was designed to detect admixtures giving also probability and standard error statistics.  Two kind of parameters are inputted: admixture candidates and outgroup populations.  The result quality depends on both inputted groups.  They can be incomplete in many ways.  Outgroups should represent some ancestral junctions of tested populations, giving ancestral differences.  If there are multiple outgroups representing same ancestral junction they should give a coherent picture.   It is not a  foregone conclusion in every case because every ancestral branch lives its own history.  That is why it is not easy to choose outgroups. Many other problems exist too.  If there are in tested groups several ancestrally close populations there will be big standard errors due to common genetic drift of those groups.  This means that qpAdm is more suitable for testing very ancient admixtures which are distinctly detectable.  Following tests, made using Iron Age populations in the Baltic area, are only directional.     
Iron Age Estonians

                                Estonian_BA / Baltic_IA / Scania_IA
best coefficients:     0.334     0.613     0.053
Jackknife mean:      0.325213405     0.531536401     0.143250193
      std. errors:        0.326     0.452     0.490

chisq: 5.922
tail prob: 0.655969

The result imply that the best available result calls for all three ancestral populations, one from Sweden, but sorting of them is difficult due to largely common genetic drift.

Sample 0LS10 (Kunda, Lääne-Viru. EST IA 770–430 BC H13a1a1a N3a3'5)

                                Estonian_IA / Saami
best coefficients:     0.847     0.153
Jackknife mean:      0.846059225     0.153940775
      std. errors:     0.059     0.059

chisq: 4.147
tail prob: 0.901439

The standard error is much lower due to lesser common genetic drift.  In this case the total error is probably generated by the Finnish admixture in present-day Saami samples.  The eastern admixture of 0LS10 is very purely eastern and barely shows any Finnish ancestry.  Would I say that it is question about proto-Saami ancestry...

New "Viking sword find" in North Estonia turned out to be of local origin?

I read about this find a month ago and my first thought was that yes, has to be Finnish.  Why? Just because Finland is the nearest place where we have seen plenty of these swords and connections between Finland and North Estonia were still tight during that time.  Now also Estonian research deny the Scandinavian origin.  One reason for this new idea was the find of a brooch with typical Finnish-North Estonian shape.  Not much, but obviously something more is to be published sooner or later.  Especially so called crawfish brooches were distinctive in Finland, but I have to wait more detailed pictures before saying more because Estonian vocabulary can differ from what I have seen.  The new article states:

"Crossbow-shaped brooches were usually worn by warriors from southwestern Finland and northwestern Estonia on the passage that intersects with the main thoroughfare of the Eastern Route," Kiudsoo said."

I'll wrote more after more details are revealed, including pictures of those finds.

https://news.err.ee/1012100/burial-site-ties-major-viking-swords-find-to-warriors-from-ravala

Increasing western influence in Iron Age Estonia

Despite of premature rumors of eastern influence in Iron Age Estonia the  change in the beginning of the Iron Age came from the west.  Saag et al. 2019 seemingly gives contradictory information, because given samples tell another story.    I grouped those samples into two groups depending on sample timings.


Estonian BA

Estonian_BA V9_2 1060–850 BC R1a1’2
Estonian_BA V14_2 1280–1050 BC R1a1’2
Estonian_BA V16_1 730–390 BC R1a1’2
Estonian_BA X11_1 1030–890 BC R1a
Estonian_BA X14_1 780–430 BC R1a1c
Estonian_BA X20_1 900–800 BC R1a

Estonian IA

Estonian_IA V11_1 390–200 BC -
Estonian_IA V12_1 360–40 BC N3a3a
Estonian_IA VII3_1 380–180 BC ?
Estonian_IA VIII5_2 75–300 AD R1a
Estonian_IA VIII7_1 75–200 AD -
Estonian_IA VIII8_1 75–200 AD R1a1c
Estonian_IA VIII9_1 75–200 AD -

I made the following PCA to fulfill needs of those who are interested in Siberian admixtures, want to see possible Siberian connections in context of Baltic Finnic and Volga Finnic languages in terms of genes if it is even possible. PCA plots are always made for certain purposes and every individual plot tells certain true story, but never the full story.

Notice also that so called Levanluhta outlier found from Iron Age Ostrobothnia fits well with the Viking group and Vikings don't match well with present-day Scandinavian and British people.


Update 9.12.2019 21:00

Now added a PCA plot figuring ancient Estonian N1c1 samples.

0LS10 Kunda Lääne-Viru, EST IA 770–430 BC M XY H13a1a1a N3a3 0 5
V12 Kurevere, Saare, EST IA 360–40 BC M XY I1a1c N3a3a
VII4 Vohma lääne-Viru, EST IA 760–400 BC M XY T1a1b N3a3a
IIa Karja, Saare, EST MA 1230–1300 AD M XY H3h1 N3a3a
IIf Otepää, Valga, EST MA 1360–1390 AD M XY T2b N3a3a
IIg Pada, Lääne-Viru, EST MA 1210–1230/1240 AD M XY U4a2b N3a3a

0LS10 drifts towards Siberian admixed groups and IIa drifts towards Finns and Saamis.  Both deviants are however too weak to be considered as real migrants and their locations probably represent only admixture.   All N1c1 samples are more comparable to those more western Iron Age Estonians than to more Baltic-like Bronze Age Estonians.