Relations of Finnish groups

 I did a new test searching admixtures of Karelians.  Academic Karelians given by Russian researchers are likely from the White Sea region.  As far as I know they are relatives of Finnish Karelians, but still a different group.  In Finland only people living in the Karelian Isthmus were considered as original Karelians, but probably in Russia the Karelian ethnicity is a wider concept and those figured as more southern Finnic people are called Ingrians, while in Finland they are called Izhorians.  For better or worse, the Karelians published by Russian researchers are not easy to determine by any Finnish ancestry, neither those called Ingrians by Russian researchers are what they should be (in my opinion).  The Ingrians as understood in Finland were an eastern migration of East Finns in the 17th century while Izhorians are considered as an old Baltic Finnic group.  What we see later, the published Karelians seems to be quite an archaic group and the best but not qualitatively confirmed match for them was Baltic_BA (Baltic Bronze Age) plus even older Bolshoy Olegi Ostrov samples from the Kola Peninsula, both samples not belonging to any known Finno-Ugric speaking people.  The  published Ingrians seem to be a very Finnish group, which is reasonable, but being closer Southwest Finns than East Finns I would say that they actually are Izhorians.  After this prologue I want also say that I probably will not do more these Finnish analyses, not before Finnish researchers publish new Iron Age Finnish samples. They published some data of them already two years ago, plus I found accidentally a newer international study citation and results figuring Iron Age Finnish samples showing unprecedented results.  I linked this study in my older letter, but the study disappeared later, so I can't tell if it was anything noteworthy or only a misconception, which was later removed (link: http://terheninenmaa.blogspot.com/2020/09/study-southwestern-finnish-samples-from.html?m=1 ).

 

Best f3-results.  It seems like Karelians, Tavastians and East Finns compose a partly mixed entity, while Southwestern Finns belong to another entity. 

Karelians - probably White Sea Karelians

Ingrians - probably Izhorians

FIN-East - Savolaxians

FIN-West - Tavastians

FIN-North - likely samples from Torne River Valley

FIN-Southwest - samples from Finland Proper

 

 Common ancestries:

 

East Finns, best fits

I have two East Finnish sample groups, one (EFinn) consisting of my project members from Eastern Finland, another (FIN-East) derived from the first one using samples from the 1000 genomes project.  The 1000 genomes gives gives better result quality due to sample amount and quality.  My 1000 genomes samples are grouped into 3 groups:  Southwest Finns resembling my project members from Finland Proper,  West Finns resembling Tavastians and East Finns resembling people from the Savo district.  Now I have a new group resembling medieval Estonians under abbreviation Estonian_MiddleAge_N1c1.  N1c1 comes from the allocation of researchers.  There is no reason to assume that medieval Estonians could have been genetically extremely diverse though.  The new Finnish group is named as  Estonian_med_Finns.

 

Some explanations.  Z-score values over 3 or below -3 are considered to be meaningful.  It doesn't mean that all other results are not "true", only that they are not mathematically reliable.  The reliability depends on SNP amount among other things ( ! mark). Good  Z-score doesn't tell about a superiority of the result itself, neither the margin of error, column 5. 

F3 uses only two sources and admixed results can be achieved by several combinations.  Real admixture could be achieved by some combination of these sources giving admixed results, or not, or even by a combination of fitting and non-fitting results.  Using qpAdm I could have found these combination, but qpAdm is a challenging tools to use with already admixed modern populations. 

Trying to find the Finnish admixture

 After hundreds candidates from every compass points I succeeded to find a meaningful combination using 3Pop.  You can try, it is not easy to find acceptable results, negative f3 results with over 3 Z-value.  After finding the Finnish admixture I made a few estimates with some other present-day populations, with less success.  This is of course only one possibility among many other similar combination and in a real world admixtures are more complex. I found that Ingrians are the most similar group with Southwestern Finns, giving similar admixtures, East Finns and Karelians didn't fit in this admixture.  Ancient samples in the first row represent Iron Age Scandinavians, Levaluhta Iron Age Saami-like people, Baltic_BA Bronze Age people from Latvia. Don't shoot the pianist.

 

 

Was there a genetic shift from the Bronze Age Estonia to the present day through the Iron Age

 While we experience heat in Finland and people spend time in air-conditioned rooms and the secrecy keeps going on as to the Finnish Iron Age samples (which we know being analysed), I started to think what can I do.  Something definitely.  I can look if there is any continuation from the Baltic Bronze Age to modern populations through the Iron Age Estonia.  We remember studies finding out that the Iron Age Estonia met a migration holding male haplogroup N1c.   This observation keeps inside the idea of a larger migration of N1c to Latvia, Lithuania and Finland.  I also picked Estonian Medieval samples carrying this particular haplogroup to extend observations about possible replacement of Bronze Age Estonians by eastern newcomers.  All right, in case my tests fail to see any replacement, it doesn't mean that any replacement didn't occur, it proves only that the migration didn't change the genetic profile of Bronze Age Estonians.  So I did a dStat-test comparing whether I can see notable change between Bronze Age, Iron Age and medieval Estonians compared to present-day populations.  If there is any shift to the present-day it would mean that there is a continuum from a dedicated migration.  If there is no notable shift it would mean that  no notable eastern or any kind of notable migration existed changing present-day populations through the Iron Age Estonia.  

 

Looking at results and using the Swedes as a threshold my conclusion is that only Latvians and Estonians show in some extent drift towards the change in Iron Age Estonia.   Only Latvians and Estonians show notable shift towards Medieval Estonia (again using the Swedes as a threshold), which sounds weird, because the common idea is that this shift should be strongest is Estonia and Finland, not in Latvia.  The row mauri is my result made by an imputed genome I got from 23andMe.  The imputation was done by a reputable US university.  

Significant results are colored.