Preprint Allentoft et al. 2024

The preprint of the study estimates the age of the I1 male population of Southern Scandinavia to be around 4000 years and defines the direction of their arrival as northeast. The time period coincides with the late Scandinavian Neolithic (Scandinavian Dagger Period) and the early Scandinavian Bronze Age. The newcomers are connected to the stone cist burial, a new type of burial common in southern Scandinavia. The burial method in question was common in Gotland as well, and the oldest graves in this area in Estonia are associated with western influences and migration from the west (interestingly, the Gotland saga, Gutasaga, mentions a migration to an island in Estonia, probably to Saaremaa and also to Poland.  Then the Danish prehistorical tradition tells about elite groups who migrated from the north, warred against jutes and beat them.  They formed the root of Danes). Later, the Scandinavian influence decreased in Estonia and a new burial method, the Tarand burial, took its place.

Today's oldest I1 clades based on living human samples are 4600 years old. The oldest I1 samples based on ancient DNA are 7000-7500 years old and were found in Gotland (Stora Förvar 11) and Hungary (BAB5). The Hungarian sample exclusively represents the early European Neolithic population, while the Gotland sample represents mainly local hunter-gatherers, but with a piquant European Neolithic addition. As a side note, Sweden's most common clade, L22, is 3900 years old according to the Yfull website, the main group of Finnish I1 men is 2300 years old and its upstream group is 2800 years old.  Regarding to the Estonian I1 we know only the size of proportion, because so far the research has shed light only on clades of Estonian haplotypes N1 and R1a.  The proportion of Estonian I1 is 15% according to earlier studies.

Stone cist graves in Gotland

Stone cist graves in Estonia

Estonian Tarand graves, usually connected to the Baltic Finnic migration from the east.  Tarand graves followed the stone cist period.  

In Finland, Bronze Age graves are common, there are thousands of discovered Bronze Age graves and stone cairns assumed to be graves, but I could not find maps specific to the grave type. After reading several archaeological studies related to stone cist burials, I am still unsure of their origin and historical chronology. One of the reasons for this may be that archaeologists did basic research in both Finland and Sweden before the digital revolution, and these studies are not available online.

Finnish ydna samples on the autosomal map

In his own abstract, A. Pruessner presents the geographical distribution of the autosomal inheritance of Finnish ydna. I have been waiting for academic research on this topic for a long time. What is being said now about the division of the N haplogroup into eastern and southwestern groups has been known for more than 10 years based on Ftdna's project data, so the presentation does not bring much new information to those interested in the matter. Pruessner's abstract does not say much about the geography of other haplogroups. Of course, for example I1 forms geographical clusters, but mainly from a common Finnish root. On the other hand, the origin of the N1 clusters refers to different angles of entry into the Finnish area. Inspired by Pruessner's presentation, I decided to do a PCA analysis using Finnish samples from the 1000genones project as data. The data includes 38 male samples out of a total of 99 samples. Due to the brevity of the ydna data in the material, I cut the definition to two characters (N1, I1, R1, one I2 removed), even if a more precise result would have been possible in some of the samples. I also did the same test with the narrower Eurogenes data. As a final conclusion, excluding ouliers in R1 and N1, two in both, it can be stated that the autosomal distribution of all yDna groups seems to be more or less similar in the entire Finnish population, although the narrower Eurogenes data points I1 towards Scandinavia and R1 towards Eastern Europe.

Figures:

1 Pruessner's abstract

2 PCA based on Eurogenes global data

3 PCA based on 1000genomes, West Eurasian view

North Europe using Eurogenes G25-coordinates

Too often in studies common heritability and genetic drift are mixed up in a population context. Pretty much research has been ruined this way. This inevitably happens when comparing the heritage of local populations. The Eurogenes coordinate system compares samples in the global coordinate system and eliminates local drift, and by using Eurogenes G25 coordinates, an objective picture of the common inheritance of population groups can be obtained even at the local sample level without the error caused by local genetic drift.

Following plots are made using the original Eurogenes G25 data.  The vertical axis on the three dimensional picture (sticks) shows similarty between Swedish, Finnish and Estonian samples.  East European samples with Siberian admixture (Komi and Chuvash) are taken to the plot to point out the Siberian admixture, gaining the maximum on the PC 1.

Thoughts about the past and the present

 Policy warning. My readers may have noticed that I don't like the enthusiasm with which Finnish genetic research is looking for Finns' ethnic roots in Russia. Unlike language, which has only one root, the genetic heritage is multi-rooted. Genetically, the inhabitants of Finland are a mixture of the southern (Estonia) and eastern (Karelia, Vepsä) Baltic Finno-Ugrians, Scandinavians of different time periods, Sami and increasingly other ethnic groups. These groups, except for the last 30 years of immigration, have been intermingling for hundreds of years. This is forgotten, as was also the case in the Estonian study, which I discussed in my previous post. Geneticists in Finland and Estonia are ideologically very single-minded in their desire to find a multidisciplinary solution by simplifying things. Of course, it is necessary to find out where our language comes from, and linguistics studies that.

Things get more complicated when the Russian view of Finns' roots is added to the previous one. I am unusually well aware that, according to the Russian point of view, the Finno-Ugric peoples living in Russia are called Finns, and Finns as one of them. In reality, the linguistic and ancient genetic roots of the Baltic Finns formed a reasonably homogenous entity that differed from other Finno-Ugric people. Baltic Finnic speakers diverged from other Finno-Ugric language speakers already 1500 years before the Russia as a state was created and formed their own genetic pool.  The political problems between Russia and the West will last, and the ideology of Finnish researchers about the origin of Finns in Russia may weaken the status of the Finno-Ugric people of Russia in their own homeland. We should see the difference between the past and the present, we should not create historical illusions that create problems in the development of communities.

Kivisild 2021

 The study "Patterns of Genetic connectedness between modern and medieval Estonian genomes reveal the Origins of a major ancestry component of the Finnish population", Toomas Kivisild 2021, activates me to examine Estonia's historical connections with Finland. I thought the research was good, but there are still a few exceptions. First of all, the Finnish sample group did not take into account the prehistoric population components of Finns. The Finns by no means moved here from Estonia as a single population. Secondly, and partly due to the previous shortcoming, the study did not comprehensively deal with the uniparental y-heritage. Together, these shortcomings make it difficult to evaluate the results.  Observing the Y-heritage and its datings would have revealed shortcomings in the sample selection.

Finns in Estonia

At the beginning of Swedish rule in 1620, less than 100,000 people lived in Estonia, the small population was due to several wars. The population of Finland was 450,000 in 1650.  The situation in Estonia was difficult and there was a lot immigration from many directions, which had a great effect on the Estonian population.  

In order to get labor faster, the landlords brought new people to the villages, usually exempting the immigrants from all taxes for three years. In this way, peasants moved from less fertile areas to more profitable areas. At that time, about a third of Estonian peasants moved to new settlements. Instead of a destroyed home, they looked for a new one or stayed there, choosing more favorable agricultural lands and also more humane landlords. The conditions for movement were also free, because in some places there was not even a landlord, some of them had moved to a new mansion and did not know the conditions there.

In the second quarter of the 18th century, a large number of representatives of other nations also arrived in Estonia, who make up up to 17% of the peasants of southern Estonia. Among the foreigners, most Russian peasants, craftsmen, merchants and fishermen settled in eastern Estonia.

A large part of the "resettlement" of Estonia was carried out by Finns, who were especially numerous in Virus and Harjumaa, where they were 20% and 12% of the population, concentrated in separate villages. There were also many Finns around Põltsamaa and Tartu. They were partly settled by the state authorities of the Estonian region, partly they left Finland for military service. At first, the Swedish kings forbade the enslavement of Finnish and Swedish peasants who had moved to Estonia, because all forms of slavery were prohibited in Sweden's territory. Over time, this attitude diminished, and the newcomers also had to bear the heavy responsibility of the estate. There were also many Finnish priests in Estonia, because after the expulsion of the Poles, Lutheranism became the main religion. 

The most famous of them was Johann Forselius, whose son was Bengt Gottfried Forselius, who has also been mentioned as the father of the Estonian written language. Contrary to what the Estonian historiography claims, the Forselius family was not Swedish, but Johann was a Finnish-born priest and teacher from the Helsinki municipality. Bengt Forselius died on his way back from Stockholm, where he visited the Swedish king or his representatives. It has been suspected that the Estonian Germans drowned Forselius because they were afraid of civilizing the Estonians, which was feared to lead to the rise of nationalism. Finnish churchmen were also in Latvia, where the Finnish garrison, the Ostrobothnia Regiment, was responsible for the country's defense against the Poles and Lithuanians. A Finnish priest who was hanged in Riga because of his bad habits has remained in the history books of Riga. My ancestors also served in that garrison.

The third large group of newcomers were Latvians, who settled in large numbers, especially around Valga.

Datings

The question of when the Finnish and Estonian languages separated to different parts of the Gulf of Finland has different answers depending on the source, but it is most commonly assumed to have happened between 300-500 AD. On the basis of archaeological finds, this timing can be considered justified, because around 500 AD in Finland, new settlement centers were created in southwestern Finland and Tavastia to the current settlement areas. Later, Tavastia in particular is mentioned in both Swedish and Russian sources as a warlike people, but only the Swedes admit that they suffered losses on military expeditions to Tavastia.

Walter Lang / Homo Fennicus is my recommedation for more information about the prehistory of the Baltic Finnic migrations and languages.

Another report from the Estonian summit

 A 400-year-old discovery of a man's remains in the northeast Finland (Koillismaa, Kuusamo) suggests connections to the Arctic Ocean region. The grave contained a witch's drum hammer, so it is credibly assumed that the man in the grave was a Sámi shaman. It remains unclear whether the man originally belonged to the Sámi people of the Finnish region, because the White Sea had centuries-old connections to the Bothnian Bay (Perämeri) and thus also to Koillismaa, where the grave discovery was made. In the past the population moved more locally than today.

Saint Henrik's origin revealed?

Geneticist Elina Salmela reveals secrets related to the origin of the late medieval Finnish ecclesiastical relic. This interesting case is also related to one of Finland's oldest church legends. According to the story, a Finnish peasant, named lately Lalli, killed a crusader bishop with an ax on the winter ice of lake Köyliö in the Southwestern Finland. As a result of the event, Finland's first ecclesiastical saint, Saint Henrik, was born. Salmela opened up about Henrik's possible origins at a meeting held in Tartu, Estonia, on September 13-16.  Today the meeting has been held and the presentation video can be available somewhere.

New article summerizes Finnish studies

 The auctor is a known Finnish geneticist and the article header is "where did the Finnish genome come from".  It is in Finnish, so it is not useful to undergo the text, instead of it I try to analyse pictures in general level.  The summary follows subjects of Finnish genetic research and gives a good picture about the situation we have now.  There are some old standpoints or approaches which I'll list first.   I try to evaluate these things and list obvious problems in Finnish studies. 

1 Strong connection between language and genes

I understand that the pressure on this point of view is strong, because Finno-Ugric people are a small minority in Eurasia.  This has been obvious.  Has this matter been too strong and impeded the research?

2 The viewpoint about the unique Finnish genome

Usually this idea is explained by the isolated geographic situation of Finland.  Actually Finland has been widely open to the east, in a comparable amount to Estonia and other Baltic countries, yet western cultural connections have been strong.

3 After that (unique Finnish genome) a bit strangely Finnish studies underline the diversity of Finnish uniparental genetic lines.

A big dilemma has been why the mitochodrial dna shows high diversity in Finland.  I havn't seen explanations;  sometimes it is explained by western connections, sometimes by eastern connections.  Also, the yDna shows both western and eastern origins.  IMO the research has not even tried to find explanations.

4 Explaining differences of domestic genetic diversity by historic events instead of prehistoric events.  In Finland the historic time starts after the 12th century.  The Finns are seen as a unique population with unique root.  But one of the most popular idea in Finnish research have been to underline the historic era east-west bifurcation of the Finnish population, based on the PEACE TREATY OF OREKHOVETS (TREATY OF NÖTEBORG, Pähkinäsaaren rauha in Finnish) in 1323.  This sounds weird, because this border was valid only a bit more than 200 years and even the most pheripheral regions of the eastern side were returned to the Finnish speaking entity only 300 years later, in the beginning of the 17th century.  How can the difference have been resulted in 200-300 years?  Mostly the explanation has been the Karelian influence in the eastern Finland, but Karelian language has never been spoken in Finland to a larger extent.

The introduction in this summary challenges old standpoints to some extent.   I translated introduction and core observations, but if you are more interested in latest reckonings I recommend to translate the text.  

Here is the link to the article.

Google translation.

Introduction

In medical genetics studies, the Finnish population is used as an isolate and homogeneous.  Neither is exactly true. Modern and ancient DNA studies have shown, that people have come here with their genes from different directions throughout the millennia. So we're on inherits mostly from the west, but about a dozen also from the far east; that's how it got from post-glacial hunter-gatherers, early potters, early farmers like bronze from Siberia as well. The genetic peculiarity of Finns is that in Finland small population and recent bottlenecks have resulted in genetic drift that is swayed the frequencies of many genetic forms to the rest of Europe in general. Also within Finland there is a strong genetic dividing line between western and eastern - or southwestern and northeastern between Finland.

Core observations

Ancient DNA studies have shown that new inhabitants have come to the surrounding areas of Finland through prehistory.
The majority of what modern Finns inherit is of western origin.
Speakers of Finland's eastern relative languages with we only have a common genetic heritage a few percent.
Eastern and Western Finns differ genetically distinct from each other more than many Central European populations.
The East-West difference and its genetic distinctiveness is largely due to the population boom periods in history from the bottle necks and the small population.

Picture 1 presents now available ancient samples.  Unfortunately southwestern Finnish autosomal samples described in my previous post are not yet available and present in this paper.  Those samples are first autosomal samples representing prehistoric Finnish people.

Picture 2 presents a PCA plot showing certain selected samples.  Unfortunately the plot lack of western (Scandinavia, Gotland, Poland) and eastern (Russia) Iron Age samples.  Only Estonian and Finnish Iron Age samples are included and the Finnish ones actually represent Saami people.  

(I noticed that the close-up is not analogous to the wide picture)

Picture 3.  Used methods are not specified. Results differ somewhat from the admixture analysis of Tambets 2018, but the difference is not in any way essential.

Picture 5 shows the west-east dichotomy in Finland.  I have not seen explanations why this happens.  What is the historical reason to this dichotomy?  Obviously it can't be a short-term peace treaty between Sweden and Novgorodian Russia.  It is said that the dichotomy is a result of the Karelian origin of East Finns, but what I have seen the suggested Karelian source population came from the Karelian Isthmus and they resemble today more Southwest Finns than Eeast Finns.  Misunderstanding is caused by the academic Karelian sample set got from Russia, which is from the White Sea region rather than from Karelian Isthmus.

A new Finnish Master's Thesis sheds light on Late Iron Age burials in Southwestern Finland

 The name on thesis is "THE GENETIC MAKEUP AND SOCIAL ORGANISATION IN EARLY MEDIEVAL COASTAL SOUTHWEST FINLAND", the author Nelli-Johanna Saari.  It is available from the library of the University of Helsinki.  I do not quote it because it is limited by copyright laws, but you can order it by email, the Openness Act gives you right to get it.

The main discourse of the thesis is related with archaeological finds. It is good work as far as I can understand, keeping in mind that I have not got acquainted with archaeology more than reading some books published for laymen.  The text was interesting.

Coming to the part dealing genetics I can say more.  This section is rather brief, but earns to be noticed because this is the first one giving something of the thema  i.e. Late Iron Age Finnish genetics (in Finland the Iron Age ended 1200AD!  and historic time from that onwards).

The thesis includes two PCA plots.  These plots prove only that already 1000 years ago the Finns were Finns.  Only addition that can be said is that they might have carried less Saami or Siberian admixture than Finns today, but too few Saami samples on the plot didn't reveal the possibility of Saami admixture in Iron Age samples.  It is also possible that some samples represent Iron Age outliers, samples seen outliers from the present-day perspective.

The admixture analysis shows same tendencies than PCA plots.

The f3-analysis uses homozygous western hunter-gatheters as an ancestral source, which can lead to erroneous conclusions, because thousands years old ancestry comes through a complex history from different eras and directions.

Downloads missed

 Some downloads in my old posts are not available any more, because my telecom provider ended the home page service.  I have backups, but the work would be enormous to update all links in old post.

Finnish I-clade, the origin and age

All this text is copy-pasted from my publications in other medias.

I try to collect data of the Finnish clade and the tree associating with it. I made interesting observations and add more pictures on following days. The first one shows the root from CTS2208. The clade age is 3900 years.

Some points. A 1000 years old ancient sample is from Novgorod Russia. It is likely Swedish or Finnish. Surprising Turkish group has TMRCA 500 years and two samples are from Antalya.

German samples are from Lower Saxony.

The next downstream level is CTS7676, formed 2800 years ago and recent TMRCA 2300 years. It has two branches, the first one, I-Y142754, fully Swedish, but not old. Oldest samples have TMRCA 950 years, most samples only 550 years. Actually this is a tiny local group in Dalecarlia, which is a bit like Swedish backwoods. Hold your breath, tomorrow I show how the oldest branch of CTS7676 continues 

Next clades are of Finnish origin. There are in Yfull around 200 Finnish samples and among them 20 Swedish, Russian and Norwegian samples, all except the higlighted sample in areas where the Finns have migrated during the Swedish era. It is not rational to make screenshots of them all, because alll are publicly available in Yfull.

The top level clade is L287, clade age 2300 years. Below it is two clades, a small By594 (1950 years) and L258 (1950 years). By594 includes two samples, a Finnish one and Norwegian in Troms. Troms is in Northern Norway where Karelians and legendary Kwens (or Kvens, mentioned in several old texts like Egils saga) used to make raids in the Middle Age.

The main Finnish clade is L258 (1950 years). Its origin is in Southwest Finland. The Finnish archealogist Unto Salo, owning the best education in the southwestern prehistory, have shown the demographic continuum from the first centuries AD in the geographic region where the density of present-day Finnish I1 is highest.

Sorry for a long text. The clade age are calculated using available samples, but they don't cover throughout the history, because in all possible scenarios we have lost ydna lines due to lines dying out. This had biggest effect in small ancient populations, although it happens all the time. We can only say that geographical male lines were born latest in the calculated clade age, meaning that the first Finnish I1 man was born beween years 2800-2300 ybp. If so it means that the population that brought I1 to Finland was in Finland 800 years before the estimated arrival of the Finnic language and was likely here also before people who brought the Saami language. Genes challenges the old history writing and it takes time to linguists and historians to change the course, still keeping them respected. Sad but true.

Holy Grail of the Uralic languages, the origin in Siberia

 It has gone a couple of years since a new Siberian-like Bronze Age sample was found from Central Siberian Krasnoyarsk.  Almost every blogger being interested in population genetics started soon to speculate if this Bronze Age man belonged to the first speakers of Uralic languages and the reason was, actually two reasons, Siberian origin and that the man belonged to the male haplogroup N.  In my opinion this conclusion was debatable.  Definitely he belonged to purest North Siberians, among many other Siberian people.  Definitely the yDna haplogoup N is common among modern Uralic speakers, but N is common also in other language groups.  Genes don't have language, languages don't have genes.  This poor Bronze Age man will never reveal his language.  Only thing common with his genes and the origin of Uralic languages is Siberia. Can we say that only one language was spoken in an area extending thousands kilometers to every direction, that this man and his kinship kept connection by  yoiking over hundreds kilometers?  Languages need common society and culture to strenghten enough to make further expansions.  One man has one male haplogroup, but he needs society and common culture within a larger social context to be able to advance something.  In the other hand even his genes were not unique in Siberia.

To have something real in my hands I made tests, a PCA-plot and a series of qp3Pop analyses.  On the PCA there was nothing particular to mention; the Krasnoyarsk man was on two first dimensions pretty much like many other pure Siberians.  Making Eurogenes G25-style multifimensional analysis would be great, maybe Eurogenes want to do it.  But then the f3-analysis revealed something.  I made two analyses comparing almost all populations I found in the North Siberia-Europe  cline to Nganasans and to the Krasnoyarsk man.  Finally I divided the Krasnoyarsk result by the Nganasan result to get the ratio of all population in the cline.  The ratio revealed that despite of  small Siberian admixture some populations had a high Krasnoyarsk ratio, including Finns.  May this mean that those with high ratio formed at least partially the westward migration of Uralic speakers?

 

2 - North Siberia - Europe cline

3 - North Siberians
 

 

Green color - high Krasnoyarsk_BA ratio.

A new study sheds light on Scandinavian Iron Age ancestry

Rodríguez-Varela et al. makes an effort to find out eastern and western influences in Iron Age Scandinavia.  Results support ideas of western migrations during the Swedish Vendel Era, especially from England.  Migration Period and the  following so called Vendel Era in Sweden are known about common artefacts with Anglo-Saxon England, which supports the outcome of the study of migrations from the British Isles, at least what comes to the Anglo-Saxon genetic influence. 

 Another observation in the study covers the eastern influence in Uppland and in more northern areas.  The study speaks about Uralic influence, which is somewhat troublesome, because genetic information doesn't include information about spoken languages.  On the other hand it mentions Finnish influence, so we can make a conclusion that the study actually means Finnish (but not Estonian)  influence, as a special case of Uralic speakers, without proving straight connection to the Ural region (where Uralic language speakers are only a minority).  On the other hand the study speaks about Eastern Baltic influence, which also leaves me uncertain of the actual meaning. Also, the study tells that the north-south cline in Scandinavia proves about the migration route of Uralic speakers, but is it similarly possible that this cline proves about SOUTHERN migration DILUTING the original population in Scandinavia - whatever language they spoke?  From history books we know that in Scandinavia, and also in Finland and Russia, the migration direction was from south to north rather than conversely.  Isn't this even more credible, not only based on known history, but also based on earlier conclusions of this study?

 The biggest shortage is that the study focuses mainly on middle and late Iron Age samples and the data doesn't include early Iron Age (Pre Roman Iron Age) and late Bronze Age samples.  This shortage leaves us without view of how the Scandinavian genetic  profile looked before the Anglo-Saxon impact and it doesn't take into account possibility of  earlier eastern and western influences.  In my opinion people in Sweden were before the Migration Period significally  more eastern than later, but then is it right to call that time Uralic or Eastern Baltic?  What would be Western Baltic then?  And why the study doesn't check the Western Baltic influence if it exists? It was interesting to read the study, despite many unclear definitions.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867422014684#mmc1

Baltic Finns as a construction of Bronze and Iron Age admixtures IV

 Peltola et al.  g25-samples are now available.  I reran previous tests after adding those new samples.  It looks like Volga-Oka Iron Age samples have some effect on results, but not anyway predominating.  Southeast, North, Central and East Finland get some meaningful portion. 

BOL - Volga Oka IA, representing people before the Slavic eastern migration.

For sample details please look at the study. Link: 

https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(22)01826-7

Target: Mauri1million_scaled
Distance: 0.4878% / 0.00487819
25.2    England_MIA
23.0    Baltic_EST_BA
10.8    RUS_Ingria_IA
10.4    England_MIA_LIA
7.6    UKR_Shestovitsa_VA
4.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA
4.2    Baltic_EST_MA
4.2    England_Saxon
4.0    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
3.0    SHK002
2.4    SHK001
0.6    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
0.2    BOL005

Target: Estonian
Distance: 0.4453% / 0.00445321
29.8    Baltic_EST_BA
20.4    England_MIA
13.6    Baltic_EST_MA
11.6    KED001
8.6    KRS001
8.6    RUS_Ingria_IA
2.8    BOL004
2.2    KED002
2.0    UKR_Shestovitsa_VA
0.2    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
0.2    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA

Target: Finnish_Southwest
Distance: 0.7118% / 0.00711846
26.2    England_MIA
17.6    Baltic_EST_BA
15.4    RUS_Ingria_IA
14.4    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
13.8    England_MIA_LIA
6.2    UKR_Shestovitsa_VA
3.8    KED001
1.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA_o
1.2    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA

Target: Finnish_Southeast
Distance: 0.6699% / 0.00669896
28.4    Baltic_EST_MA
23.8    England_MIA
11.4    BOL005
10.0    Baltic_EST_IA
10.0    England_LIA
8.0    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
6.4    Baltic_EST_BA
1.2    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
0.8    KRS001

Target: Finnish_North
Distance: 0.9945% / 0.00994463
23.0    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
21.8    England_MIA
19.0    RUS_Ingria_IA
14.6    Baltic_EST_BA
11.4    BOL004
8.4    England_MIA_LIA
1.6    UKR_Shestovitsa_VA
0.2    Baltic_EST_MA

Target: Finnish_East
Distance: 0.7742% / 0.00774249
21.8    Baltic_EST_MA
21.0    Baltic_EST_IA
13.6    BOL005
13.2    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
8.2    England_MIA
6.4    England_MIA_LIA
5.4    Baltic_EST_BA
5.2    BOL009
4.0    England_Saxon
0.8    England_IA
0.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA

Target: Finnish_Central
Distance: 0.6841% / 0.00684063
19.2    Baltic_EST_BA
19.0    England_MIA
14.0    Baltic_EST_MA
12.8    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
10.4    BOL004
7.0    England_IA_EarlyMedieval
4.2    RUS_Ingria_IA
4.0    England_Saxon
3.8    England_MIA_LIA
3.6    KED002
1.6    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
0.4    Baltic_EST_IA

Reducing population number erases IA-samples.

Target: Mauri1million_scaled
Distance: 2.0489% / 0.02048857 | ADC: 2x RC
41.6    KBL002
40.8    UKR_Shestovitsa_VA
15.0    KED002
2.6    GOS002

Target: Estonian
Distance: 1.7521% / 0.01752108 | ADC: 2x RC
30.6    Baltic_EST_MA
27.4    Baltic_EST_IA
27.0    KED001
15.0    KED002

Target: Finnish_Southwest
Distance: 2.1900% / 0.02190021 | ADC: 2x RC
53.6    KED001
46.4    UKR_Shestovitsa_VA

Target: Finnish_Southeast
Distance: 2.5633% / 0.02563278 | ADC: 2x RC
32.8    KRS001
31.0    Baltic_EST_IA
21.2    GOR001
15.0    KED002

Target: Finnish_North
Distance: 3.7546% / 0.03754556 | ADC: 2x RC
100.0    GOR001

Target: Finnish_East
Distance: 3.0876% / 0.03087553 | ADC: 2x RC
100.0    GOR001

Target: Finnish_Central
Distance: 3.4461% / 0.03446146 | ADC: 2x RC
100.0    GOR001

Baltic Finns as a construction of Bronze and Iron Age admixtures III

 To be on the safe side regarding selected eastern Krasnoyarsk samples I made a g25-test using ALL available ancient samples to figure out Southwest and Eastwest Finns.   The reason for selecting Krasnoyarsk samples was the fact that they look on drift tests promising sources for Baltic Finns.  Yet I want to see new Volga Oka samples and want to search suitable western pairs for them.  Hopefully Eurogenes author can offer them in the near future.

Target: Finnish_Southeast
Distance: 0.7026% / 0.00702565 | ADC: 0.25x RC
24.8    NOR_North_VA_o2:VK519
14.0    ISL_Viking_Age_Pre_Christian:NNM-A-1
13.0    Baltic_EST_IA:s19_V10_2
12.6    SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna:vik_KAL006
9.0    NOR_Mid_MA:VK124
8.0    SRB_Viminacium:R9673
6.8    EST_Saaremaa_EVA:VK554
6.0    DNK_Sealand_VA:VK215
3.6    Baltic_EST_IA:s19_VII4_1
1.2    RUS_Ladoga_VA:VK21
1.0    DNK_Funen_VA:VK371

Target: Finnish_Southwest
Distance: 0.5735% / 0.00573538 | ADC: 0.25x RC
24.6    DNK_Langeland_VA:VK367
17.4    DNK_Sealand_EVA:VK297
13.4    SWE_Gotland_VA:VK462
11.6    FIN_Levanluhta_IA:JK1968
8.8    SWE_Gotland_VA:VK472
8.0    SWE_Gotland_VA:VK51
5.2    FIN_Levanluhta_IA:DA234
3.8    RUS_Ladoga_VA:VK408
3.6    DEU_Tollense_BA:WEZ40
2.4    SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna:vik_84005
1.2    UKR_Shestovitsa_VA:VK539

This would be nice, but only if we forget eastern origins of Baltic Finns, with exception of Levanluhta and Norwegian Saami.  Negative side is that our history should be written newly, because we would be descendants of Vikings.  We are not. Dilemma we have with our history ought to be seen. 

Baltic Finns as a construction of Bronze and Iron Age admixtures II

 For those who trust in g25-results and use g25-model as a reference in various contexts, I made examples using original g25-sources listed in my previous post and now using original modern g25 population averages as targets.  Its is obvious that if anyone, including Finnish researchers, wants to assume eastern genetic origin of Baltic Finns, this hypothesis leads to a very western admixture compensation in all Baltic Finnic populations, but is  observable only as a minor western admixture in Baltic populations, like Latvians and Lithuanians.  

This is true regardless of the origin of the Baltic Finnic language and in my opinion researchers in population genetics  make an unintelligible mistake when continuing research like they do as things currently stand.  A magic solution is to use Baltic Finns as a reference of Baltic Finns without eastern admixture options, just like for example 23andMe does.  This abracadabra sounds like an only solution just because Baltic Finns are an unique admixture of west and east, but why don't you  use the original admixture instead of invoking tautology?  Extra benefit would be a genetic evidence of the origin of the Baltic Finnic language.  

Target: Finnish_Southwest
Distance: 0.7206% / 0.00720570
26.6    England_MIA
18.6    Baltic_EST_BA
16.8    RUS_Ingria_IA
14.4    England_MIA_LIA
13.8    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
5.2    UKR_Shestovitsa_VA
1.8    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA_o
1.4    England_IA_EarlyMedieval
1.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA

Target: Finnish_Southeast
Distance: 0.7483% / 0.00748311
27.0    Baltic_EST_MA
19.8    England_MIA
16.0    Baltic_EST_IA
12.6    England_LIA
11.6    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
9.4    Baltic_EST_BA
1.8    England_IA_EarlyMedieval
1.8    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA

Target: Finnish_North
Distance: 1.0307% / 0.01030739
28.6    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
22.4    England_MIA
19.2    RUS_Ingria_IA
18.0    Baltic_EST_BA
9.6    England_MIA_LIA
2.0    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA_o
0.2    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA

Target: Finnish_East
Distance: 0.8937% / 0.00893685
23.4    Baltic_EST_MA
22.8    Baltic_EST_IA
18.2    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
10.4    Baltic_EST_BA
6.4    England_Saxon
5.2    England_MIA_LIA
4.6    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA
4.4    England_LIA
3.2    England_MIA
1.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA

Target: Finnish_Central
Distance: 0.7321% / 0.00732105
25.4    Baltic_EST_BA
21.0   England_MIA
16.2    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
13.2    Baltic_EST_MA
8.2    England_Saxon
5.2    England_IA_EarlyMedieval
3.8    RUS_Ingria_IA
2.6    England_MIA_LIA
2.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
2.0    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA_o

Target: Karelian
Distance: 0.5298% / 0.00529849
35.0    Baltic_EST_BA
16.4    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
12.8    Baltic_EST_MA
11.0    England_IA_EarlyMedieval
7.0    England_MIA
4.8    England_MIA_LIA
3.8    UKUKR_Chernigov_VA_o
3.6    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
2.8    England_IA
2.8    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA_o

Target: Vepsian
Distance: 0.7665% / 0.00766456
38.0    Baltic_EST_BA
14.2    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
11.8    England_IA
11.8    England_MIA
6.4    Baltic_EST_MA
6.2    UKUKR_Chernigov_VA_o
5.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
3.0    RUS_Ingria_IA
2.0    England_IA_EarlyMedieval
0.6    England_Saxon
0.6    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA_o

Target: Saami
Distance: 1.1439% / 0.01143915
65.0    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
10.4    Baltic_EST_MA
6.8    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA_o
4.2    Baltic_EST_IA
4.2    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
3.6    England_LIA
2.6    England_MIA_LIA
2.0    Baltic_EST_BA
1.2    England_MIA

Target: Saami_Kola
Distance: 0.6132% / 0.00613244
33.6    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
15.2    Baltic_EST_BA
15.2    Baltic_EST_IA
13.0    Baltic_EST_MA
8.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
5.0    England_EIA
4.6    England_LIA
3.0    England_MIA
2.0    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA_o

Target: Estonian
Distance: 0.5235% / 0.00523480
31.0    Baltic_EST_BA
20.0    Baltic_EST_MA
15.2    England_MIA
10.4    UKUKR_Chernigov_VA_o
9.2    RUS_Ingria_IA
5.0    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
4.6    England_IA_EarlyMedieval
3.2    England_IA
0.6    UKR_Shestovitsa_VA
0.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
0.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA


Finally I added ancient Baltic samples  to sources to see if they could make a perfect match for Finns without western proportions..  They don't do it, they don't even exist in results.  Only Estonian Bronze Age sources are eligible, obviously because Baltic samples have too high East European affinity.

Baltic_LTU_BA, Baltic_LVA_BA added.

Target: Finnish_Southwest
Distance: 0.7206% / 0.00720550
26.8    England_MIA
18.8    Baltic_EST_BA
16.8    RUS_Ingria_IA
14.4    England_MIA_LIA
13.8    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
4.8    UKR_Shestovitsa_VA
1.8    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA_o
1.4    England_IA_EarlyMedieval
1.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA

Target: Finnish_Southeast
Distance: 0.7517% / 0.00751654
27.4    Baltic_EST_MA
21.6    England_MIA
16.6    Baltic_EST_IA
11.6    England_LIA
9.8    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
9.6    Baltic_EST_BA
2.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
1.0    England_IA_EarlyMedieval

Baltic Finns as a construction of Bronze and Iron Age admixtures

 Without taking specific position of the ancestry of Baltic Finnic populations I selected best fitting Eurogenes g25-samples from a file published by the Eurogenes author and drove them through the Vahaduo admixture estimator.  The file was updated in the beginning of December 2022.  It lacks of samples looking promising in my f3- and Dstat-tests, like several Germanic samples from the Medieval or Migration Period, and some newer samples from new studies, which we are still waiting for, like samples from Volga Oka. 

Now gathered original (not simulated) g25-samples works only with Baltic Finns, including Finns, Estonians and Karelians, suggesting a distinctive admixture profile of them.  Results give typically a distance between 1.5-3%, usually around 2% or a bit less, but I have limited amount of individual samples to test with, just enough to see guidelines.  So I appreciate reader tests and posting results as comments.  Here is my result:

Target: Mauri_scaled
Distance: 1.9411% / 0.01941101
25.2    England_MIA_LIA
18.8    England_Saxon
18.2    Baltic_EST_BA
13.2    England_MIA
11.8    RUS_Ingria_IA
4.6    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
4.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA
3.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
0.4    England_EastYorkshire_MIA_LIA
 

Target: Mauri_scaled
Distance: 1.9411% / 0.01941130
19.0    England_Saxon:I0773
17.4    Baltic_EST_BA:s19_V16_1
14.0    England_MIA_LIA:I21307
11.8    RUS_Ingria_IA:VIII5_2
11.4    England_MIA_LIA:I20626
7.2    England_MIA:I17261
5.0    England_MIA:I11997
4.0    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA:I1856
3.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA:kra001
2.8    FIN_Levanluhta_IA:JK1968
1.8    FIN_Levanluhta_IA:JK1970
0.8    Baltic_EST_BA:s19_X15_2
0.6    England_EastYorkshire_MIA_LIA:I13759
0.6    England_MIA:I3083
0.2    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA:I1851

G25 source file download:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ttCMVucenKEGof_6tswbnBlPYp4yrWwz/view?usp=share_link

Some lacking, but possible fitting samples:

England_EarlyMed_Saxon_oSteppe
Denmark_Zealand_Saxon_Med
Hungary_Langobard
NetherlandsGroningen_Saxon_Med
England_EarlyMed_Saxon
Germany_Schleswig_Saxon_LMed 

Aftermath:

It looks like Krasnoyarsk and Levanluhta are dominating, meaning that a small eastern proportion has important effect on how admixed samples act. Yet the sum admixture reaches a moderate fitting.  But no smoke without fire;  I made several Dstat-tests comparing my and Polish drift distances to all used g25 source samples dowloaded from Reichlab  (plus those I mentioned still lacking from the g25-source) and in most cases I was closer now used western g25 source samples.  In these Dstat-tests SNP numbers were over 0.9 million.

edit 2.1.2023 11:50 AM EET

More SNPs, more accuracy and a bit different composition. Yet close to the same east-west distribution.  English Saxon changed mostly to English Iron Age.

Target: Mauri1million_scaled Distance: 0.6521% / 0.00652080  
21.8 Baltic_EST_BA
21.2 England_MIA_LIA
20.0 England_MIA
11.6 RUS_Ingria_IA
9.6 FIN_Levanluhta_IA
5.8 RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA
3.6 UKR_Shestovitsa_VA
3.4 England_Saxon
1.6 RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
1.4 Baltic_EST_MA