Baltic Finns as a construction of Bronze and Iron Age admixtures

 Without taking specific position of the ancestry of Baltic Finnic populations I selected best fitting Eurogenes g25-samples from a file published by the Eurogenes author and drove them through the Vahaduo admixture estimator.  The file was updated in the beginning of December 2022.  It lacks of samples looking promising in my f3- and Dstat-tests, like several Germanic samples from the Medieval or Migration Period, and some newer samples from new studies, which we are still waiting for, like samples from Volga Oka. 

Now gathered original (not simulated) g25-samples works only with Baltic Finns, including Finns, Estonians and Karelians, suggesting a distinctive admixture profile of them.  Results give typically a distance between 1.5-3%, usually around 2% or a bit less, but I have limited amount of individual samples to test with, just enough to see guidelines.  So I appreciate reader tests and posting results as comments.  Here is my result:

Target: Mauri_scaled
Distance: 1.9411% / 0.01941101
25.2    England_MIA_LIA
18.8    England_Saxon
18.2    Baltic_EST_BA
13.2    England_MIA
11.8    RUS_Ingria_IA
4.6    FIN_Levanluhta_IA
4.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA
3.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
0.4    England_EastYorkshire_MIA_LIA
 

Target: Mauri_scaled
Distance: 1.9411% / 0.01941130
19.0    England_Saxon:I0773
17.4    Baltic_EST_BA:s19_V16_1
14.0    England_MIA_LIA:I21307
11.8    RUS_Ingria_IA:VIII5_2
11.4    England_MIA_LIA:I20626
7.2    England_MIA:I17261
5.0    England_MIA:I11997
4.0    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA:I1856
3.4    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA:kra001
2.8    FIN_Levanluhta_IA:JK1968
1.8    FIN_Levanluhta_IA:JK1970
0.8    Baltic_EST_BA:s19_X15_2
0.6    England_EastYorkshire_MIA_LIA:I13759
0.6    England_MIA:I3083
0.2    RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA:I1851

G25 source file download:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ttCMVucenKEGof_6tswbnBlPYp4yrWwz/view?usp=share_link

Some lacking, but possible fitting samples:

England_EarlyMed_Saxon_oSteppe
Denmark_Zealand_Saxon_Med
Hungary_Langobard
NetherlandsGroningen_Saxon_Med
England_EarlyMed_Saxon
Germany_Schleswig_Saxon_LMed 

Aftermath:

It looks like Krasnoyarsk and Levanluhta are dominating, meaning that a small eastern proportion has important effect on how admixed samples act. Yet the sum admixture reaches a moderate fitting.  But no smoke without fire;  I made several Dstat-tests comparing my and Polish drift distances to all used g25 source samples dowloaded from Reichlab  (plus those I mentioned still lacking from the g25-source) and in most cases I was closer now used western g25 source samples.  In these Dstat-tests SNP numbers were over 0.9 million.

edit 2.1.2023 11:50 AM EET

More SNPs, more accuracy and a bit different composition. Yet close to the same east-west distribution.  English Saxon changed mostly to English Iron Age.

Target: Mauri1million_scaled Distance: 0.6521% / 0.00652080  
21.8 Baltic_EST_BA
21.2 England_MIA_LIA
20.0 England_MIA
11.6 RUS_Ingria_IA
9.6 FIN_Levanluhta_IA
5.8 RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA
3.6 UKR_Shestovitsa_VA
3.4 England_Saxon
1.6 RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
1.4 Baltic_EST_MA