Popgen conference in Vilnius

 The Popgen conference (-> link ) in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, presents a multidisciplinary presentation of the region's demographic development based on new findings. In my reviews, I will now focus on the title

A GENETIC BRIDGE OVER THE GULF OF FINLAND: TRACING THE ORIGIN OF GENETIC CONNECTEDNESS BETWEEN FINNS AND ESTONIANS, which assesses the common origin of Estonians and Finns based on genetics. The common linguistic origin has already been proven by language researchers.

I will quote the presentation in question here and comment on my views between the lines.

I will return to the topics of other posts later.

The Finnish population is a unique example of a genetic isolate affected by a recent founder event. Previous studies have suggested that the ancestors of Finnic-speaking Finns and Estonians reached the circum-Baltic region by the 1st millennium BCE. However, high linguistic similarity points to a more recent split of their languages. We set out to study genetic connectedness between Finns and Estonians directly. In a study published in 2021 [1], we searched for long shared allele intervals (LSAIs; like identity-by-descent segments) in unphased data for >143,000 present-day Estonians, 99 Finns, and 14 imputed ancient genomes from Estonia. We found unexpectedly high levels of individual connectedness between Estonians and Finns for the last eight centuries, contrasting their clear differentiation by allele frequencies.

- if I have to use Finnish genetic data, I would be very skeptical about the existence of this isolate. Several research tools seemingly turn the course of history upside down, because they create a static picture of the population's genetics and do not include the direction of change observed in the genomes from generation to generation. At least PCA, Finestructure and Admixture work incorrectly in this way. While waiting for  tools that detect also the direction of change, the researcher should be aware of the history of the population in question to some extent in order to avoid errors in their conclusions, for example by prioritizing the use of reference populations.

- genome data has been collected from thousands of Finns in recent years. Why is it still limited to only 1000-Genomes data?

- during the last 800 years, only small numbers of Estonians have migrated to the southern coast of Finland, and hardly any to other parts of Finland. During the Swedish rule, in the 1600s, a significant number of Finns migrated to the Estonian Harjumaa.

The workflow begins with ancient DNA extraction and sequencing, followed by data processing and authentication to ensure data reliability. Validated datasets with at least 0.1x average genomic coverage are imputed using QUILT2 and the Haplotype Reference Consortium (HRC) panel. Both non-imputed (pseudohaploid) and imputed datasets are explored through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to assess broad genetic structure. Further resolution is achieved using LSAI sharing and individual connectedness inference with IBIS and ancIBD, which identifies fine-scale genetic links. The analysis also includes admixture modelling using qpAdm to reconstruct ancestral contributions and demographic histories. Biological kinship between individuals is estimated based on allele mismatch rates in pseudohaploid data (READ2) as well as identity-by-descent (IBD) segment sharing in imputed data.

Here, to clarify the temporal origins of the connectedness between Estonians and Finns, we extracted and sequenced ancient DNA from 16 additional prehistoric individuals from Estonia, dated to 1,400 BCE to 700 CE, including the first genomes from 300–700 CE. By comparing the patterns of individual connectedness across time, we show that individuals dating to 300–700 CE already had higher levels of individual connectedness with modern Estonians and Finns than individuals from earlier time periods, including preceding individuals from 600–100 BCE.

- does this mean that between 300-700 CE there was a demographic development (e.g. admixture) that affected both sides of the Gulf of Finland in the same way, or only one side before crossing the Gulf of Finland? Was the older population (600-100 BCE) still at least partly descendants of the Corded Ware culture at that time, and the later population carrying common features on both sides of the Gulf of Finland was predominantly a part of Baltic Finnish-speaking settlements, thus the difference from the 600-100 BCE and 300-700 CE?   Much remains to be investigated.  All this also calls for more Finnish genetic samples from the Iron Age and modelling all now studied samples using Slavic and Scandinavian Iron Age samples. 

Salme pre-Vikings, more analysis

 According to my previous post, the pre-Vikings killed and buried with their boats on the west coast of Estonia, in Salme, in 750AD were Swedes. Now there was a lot of controversy on the forum about this and the view was put forward that they were Estonian Vikings. It is true that the ancient inhabitants of Saaremaa, like the Vikings, were involved in piracy and taxed the inhabitants of nearby regions on their raids. They even went as far as Denmark on their raids. But this is not enough evidence for the ethnicity of the victims of the boat burial. According to a more logical explanation, it was the locals who killed the Swedish settlers. In the previous post, I stated that they were Swedes of autosomali heritage.

 Now I will bring additional evidence in the form of YDNA. Haplogroup distribution of the deceased: 19 belonged to group I, 7 to group N and 6 to group R, however, 6 of those belonging to group N belonged to the L550 mutation, which is known to occur in Sweden, although it is also common in the Baltics. It has been shown to have also belonged to the Ruriks mentioned in Russian heroic tales. The accuracy of one N result did not reach the same level.

 All ydna results are raw data produced by my software. The results are reliable at the haplogroup level, but ensuring an accurate downstream result requires manual verification. It is not necessary in this context.

Goths, pre-Vikings and ancient Finns

 Archaeologically, ancient finds from eastern Poland that were considered Goths turn out to be Swedish.   Link to the study.  The origin of the Goths has long been debated, and their Scandinavian origin has been suspected. It is possible that the Goth groups that advanced further south were multinational, but even in the area of ​​present-day Poland they seem to have been mainly Scandinavian, which can be concluded, together with the original surviving written evidence, that they came from Scandinavia, if the Polish area was not already inhabited by them.

The second group I tested is the pre-Viking samples found in western Estonia. They also fit oon the PCA picture with the Swedes.

The third group is the approximately 1000-

year-old and younger samples from Häme, Finland. They are, as one might expect, completely similar to modern Finns. As a comparison group of Finns, I took 20 of the 99 1000-genomes samples, the most western samples. It is well known that there is a large dispersion in the eastern ancestry of Finns; in the east it can be 10-15% and in the westernmost provinces 2-5%. Even those who have the least eastern ancestry in the analyses are mainly Finnish speakers.

I try to use Human Origin samples as much as possible to avoid problems due to data gaps, which may be significant in PC analyses. Unfortunately, the HO samples are missing, among others, Germans, Swedes and Poles, which had to be circumvented somehow. For this reason, I projected these modern nationalities in the same way as the ancient samples.

Update:  there was a couple high resolution German samples, which were not projected, thus the header two times on the plot.

Razib Khan's conclusion about Finns and the origin of Germanic languages

 Razib Khan's almost pathological interest in Finnish culture and heritage has progressed to new, unprejudiced views.

Finns came from Yakutia and Germanics from Finland.

I will not begin to assess the probability of Khan's conclusions any further. Of course, the claim about the Yakutian origin of Finns is based on only a few ancient samples from Yakutia and Baikal, and only one sample related to the supposed Seima Turbino event. Typically for Khan, he proceeds in a "cross and stack" style and on personal preferences visible in several of his commercial tools.

At one point, he boldly presents Finland as the homeland of the Germanics. Apparently, this idea will not find support among current speakers of Germanic languages. But there are at least linguistic grounds for this idea. It is quite possible that speakers of an Indo-European language lived in the area before the arrival of the Finno-Ugric peoples in Finland. The dating goes back to the Bronze Age and the older Roman Iron Age. . The IE language spoken towards the end of the Bronze Age acquired, after certain changes, the characteristics of Germanic languages. Numerous very primitive Germanic loanwords from Finnish support the idea of ​​contacts in the early stages of the development of the Germanic language. In Finland, the Germanic language was isolated and differentiated from its later stages of development in Scandinavia and retained the original form of these loans for a longer period. These loans remained in the Finnish language permanently, as contacts between Finnish and local Germanic speakers weakened presumably already in the later Roman Iron Age.

Khan leaves the analysis of the N haplogroup badly halfway. I assume that the reason is that a deeper analysis of the haplogroup in question leads to problems without sufficient historical knowledge. The problems are easier to explain with autosomal inheritance, but when the explanation is a matter of choice, the simplest explanation would perhaps be the best until proven otherwise. For example, the Siberian inheritance of the Finns would have to be proven to be about 4000 years old, in order to prove that it originated during the western migration of the Finno-Ugric language. Evidence would include an ancient genome found in Estonia that is about 2500-3000 years old, and whose Siberian inheritance would be clearly greater than the Siberian inheritance of today's Finns, assuming that the western inheritance of the Finns is after the western migration of the Finno-Ugric peoples.

Link to the article

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New Russian study sheds light on the early Christian period in Russia

 A new Russian study (->link) sheds light on the genetic heritage of the medieval population of Russia. Unfortunately, Iron Age samples from the second half of the first millennium have not been available due to the cremation burials typical of the period. The situation is the same in this respect as in Finland. Cremation was a common burial method in the first millennium in Finland, with a few exceptions. It would be interesting to compare Iron Age samples from the areas of present-day Russia and Finland. However, the study shows that the current Russian-speaking population was divided into East Slavic and Finno-Ugric populations in the early Christian period. It is clear that in the Iron Age, before the expansion of the East Slavic peoples, a larger part of the population represented Finno-Ugric peoples. This is also reflected in the analyses of the study, where the population classified as East Slavic is placed in the middle ground between other Slavic groups and Finno-Ugric peoples. The study does not provide strong evidence of the Scandinavian heritage cherished by Western historiography in Russia. In addition to the Slavic and Finno-Ugric ancient populations, both of these show a weak Tatar influence compared to the Finns and Balts who don't show it. 

Finally, ancient dna from Eura Luistari

Eura's Luistari is the most famous Iron Age burial site in Finland. The extensive cemetery covers burials from the Migration Period to the late Viking Age. What is unusual about these burials is the unusual inhumation burial method for the period and the lack of cremation. New research proves a local heritage that lacks both Scandinavian and Baltic influence, The Jerusalem Post states in its news. The study doesn't try to investigate the social status of individuals, the article continues. 

Link

Swedish queen who was buried in Finland

 Karin Månsdotter (->link) is the only Swedish royal buried in Finland. Karin was born into a lower estate, but became Queen of Sweden as the wife of Erik XIV in 1568. Karin was by no means the only member of the house-born estate to end up in the Swedish royal family. Erik, however, was unpopular and was deposed by his brother, and his reign was short-lived. Erik and Karin were imprisoned, Karin was later sent to Finland, and Erik, who had been in captivity, was probably murdered. Karin lived for decades in Finland and was buried as a noble in Turku Cathedral after her death. The grave has now been opened and new research (->link) is unraveling Karin's story using archaeological and ancient genetic methods.